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TX GOP 10/18 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Administrator   
Friday, 19 October 2007 08:44
Fred Thompson's support is fading among previous Texas Republican primary voters. Back in June, long before he officially entered the race, Thompson led the race with 29%. At the end of August, he had slipped slightly to 25% and by mid-October, he has fallen to 19%, behind Rudy Giuliani, who added three points to 24%. Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee tied for third at 14% each, followed by Tom Tancredo at 7%, John McCain and Ron Paul at 6% and straw poll winner Duncan Hunter at 4%. Alan Keyes received no votes. Sam Brownback was not listed, as news reports indicate he will drop out today. Undecided was down to 6%.

  • Giuliani - 24%
  • Thompson - 19%
  • Huckabee - 14%
  • Romney - 14%
  • Tancredo - 7%
  • McCain - 6%
  • Paul - 6%
  • Hunter - 4%
  • Keyes - 0%
  • Undecided 6%

532 previous TX GOP Primary voters, polled 10/18/2007 - Margin of error 4.3%

Click 'Read More' for detail and Hutchison question

Last Updated on Friday, 19 October 2007 09:01
TX Senate Democratic Primary PDF Print E-mail
Written by Administrator   
Wednesday, 05 September 2007 11:10
I ran a question on the Senate primary along with another poll of past Texas Democratic Primary voters. Mikal Watts and Rick Noriega are the two candidates. I included Emil Reichstadt, but he dropped out a couple of days later to run for a different office. As far as I know, he had no knowledge of these results.

This race gets a lot of attention on the blogs, but is generally off the radar for most voters. In the three-way race, 52% were undecided. Men were more likely to state an opinion, with 'only' 44% undecided compared to 56% of women. Noriega was the clear leader among those who had a preference, with 27% to Watts' 14% and Reichstadt's 6%. The Houston area was strong for Noriega with about 50% of the vote despite 38% undecided. The Corpus Christi area had similar numbers, but with Watts in the lead. San Antonio and DFW were about 2/3 undecided, with Watts and Noriega about even. Austin was also 2/3 undecided, but with a 7-1 lead for Noriega. El Paso was close to the state average, while the LRGV gave Noriega a 40% to 23% lead with 34% undecided.

Excluding undecided and breaking the results into subsets by combination of gender and ethnicity, and then comparing Noriega's percentage to Watts' percentage, Noriega led in every category. His strongest showing was among Latino women, who gave him 2.9 'votes' for every one of Watts'. The closest subset was white women, who gave Noriega 1.2 times as many 'votes.' This was also the subset with the highest undecided - 58%. The lowest undecided was among Latino men, with 39%, who gave Noriega his second smallest lead with 1.6x. Many of these slices contain very small samples, so take them with a grain of salt.

8/29-30, 489 polled, 4.5% MoE
Last Updated on Wednesday, 05 September 2007 11:13
Florida 7/16 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Administrator   
Tuesday, 17 July 2007 11:05

I polled Florida again, with two samples, one drawn from registered Democrats who have history of voting in general elections and one drawn from registered Democrats who have history of voting in Demogratic primaries. I will refer to 'primary and general' voters below, but all are registered Democrats whose voting history shows them to be likely voters in 2008.

Clinton is still far ahead, but Obama has made gains over the last month. The most notable shift was among African American primary voters. Last month, African American general voters went three to one for Obama over Clinton, while African American primary voters went three to one for Clinton over Obama. This month, both groups went strongly for Obama. This shift, along with a smaller shift among white primary voters now has Clinton doing better among general voters than among primary voters, a reversal of last month's results.

Last Updated on Tuesday, 17 July 2007 11:20
Texas GOP 8/29 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Administrator   
Friday, 31 August 2007 10:59
I polled the Texas GOP on their presidential primary preferences ahead of the upcoming straw poll. Few candidates will be attending, so it will be hard to predict the results. To vote in the straw poll, the individual must have been a delegate or alternate delegate at a recent GOP convention. I poll voters that have voted in recent GOP primaries, which is a much larger population. I named all candidates, but only gave choices for the top 6, plus options for 'Other' and 'Undecided.'
I last polled the Texas GOP in mid-June, and found that Fred Thompson led the pack with 29% despite not officially being in the race. He's still not in 'officially,' but he still leads with 25%. Rudy Giuliani is unchanged at 21%. McCain slips from third to fifth as both Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee move up to 15% and 13% respectively. The Iowa straw poll seems to have really boosted Huckabee while Romney has been gaining for a longer period. The previous poll got lots of attention as a result of showing Ron Paul at 6%, higher than any other telephone poll. He has slipped to 5% due to a weaker showing in the San Antonio area, where Huckabee and Romney showed gains.
As noted last time, there are some noticeable gender gaps, with Thompson, Huckabee and Paul all much more popular with men than with women. Romney was also higher with men, but there was less of a gap. McCain was fairly even, while Giuliani did much better among women. Women were also much more likely to be undecided.
I also asked whether the 'Surge' was a success or not, and 67% said yes, 18% said no and 15% were undecided. Even Ron Paul supporters thought it was a success 49% to 30%. The suprise to me was that McCain supporters were much closer to Paul's than the other candidates. Only 53% to 27% said it was a success, while the other candidates supporters were all in the high 70% range for 'success.'
Finally, I asked about Rick Perry's approval rating and he got 63% approval overall. Huckabee supporters were a little lower than average at 49%, while 'Other' supporters only gave him 36%. Undecided voters were not undecided about Perry, giving him a 91% approval rating, more than any candidate's supporters.

  • Thompson 25%
  • Giuliani 21%
  • Romney 15%
  • Huckabee 13%
  • McCain 8%
  • Paul 5%
  • Other 8%
  • Undecided 5%

570 Polled 8/29/07 MoE 4.1%
Last Updated on Friday, 31 August 2007 11:18
Texas 7/9 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Administrator   
Tuesday, 10 July 2007 10:46
In this month's Burnt Orange Report Texas Democratic Presidential Primary tracking poll, lower undecided this time let both Clinton and Obama move up, but Obama had the more impressive movement. Obama had much stronger Latino support, going from 8% to 19% as well as stronger white support, going from 13% to 20%. While he has been almost unknown outside of the big cities, he had widespread regional improvement this month, gaining in 2/3 of the area codes. His support was firmer as well, with fewer of his supporters saying they are still considering other candidates.

Gore may have picked up a bit of a LiveEarth bump. While the number that say they would definitely switch to Gore if he entered is only slightly higher than last month, the number that would possibly vote for him has increased more significantly, raising his ceiling from 47% to 57%. Obama supporters are much more likely to definitely switch to Gore than supporters of other top candidates, so a Gore entry would probably derail any Obama momentum.

Hard support for Gore (those that would definitely switch) is slightly higher than hard support for Clinton (those that would definitely not switch). This was the case last month as well. I would assume that most of those saying they would 'possibly' switch to Gore would stay with their original candidate. Still, peeling off 30% of these 'possible' votes could put him in the lead, even if he couldn't peel any from Clinton.
Last Updated on Friday, 20 July 2007 06:44
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