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Wednesday, 16 July 2008 |
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As some of you know, I do financial and economic analysis/consulting. Recently, I was talking to an Economist about the intersection of economics and politics, and we decided to start tracking a few measures of economic sentiment in Texas. We will be polling adults in Texas and periodically publishing results on a trailing month basis. The plan is to poll 250 adults each week, so the trailing month will have 1000 responses, adequate for regional breakdowns. Methodology will be the same as used in my political polls, but the sample will be residential, without regard to voter registration or history. Results will be weighted by age, gender and ethnicity to match the estimates of the Texas State Demographer. If all goes well, this will spin off into an economic research entity which will do topical economic surveys as well as other forms of economic research and analysis. Here are the tracking questions. We only have about 500 responses since settling on the format and methodology, but the partial results are listed below. These responses reflect economic sentiment rather than actual conditions. Would you say that you and others living at your home are better off financially that they were a year ago?
If you are better off now, please press 1 on your phone (30%)
If you are about the same as last year, press 2 (24%)
If you are worse off, press 3 (42%)
If you aren't sure, press 4 (3%) Is anyone in the household worried about losing their job in the next six months?
If yes, please press 1 (26%)
If no, press 2 (69%)
If you aren't sure, press 3 (6%) Do you think your household income will increase more or less than inflation in the next year?
If you think your household income will increase more than inflation in the next year, press 1 (25%)
If you think income will keep pace with inflation, press 2 (20%)
If you think inflation will rise faster than your household income, press 3 (51%)
If you aren't sure, press 4 (4%) Do you think that unemployment will increase or decrease in your area over the next three months?
If you think that more people in your area will be unemployed in the next three months, press 1 (64%)
If you think that fewer people will be unemployed in the next three months, press 2 (20%)
If you think employment levels will be steady, press 3 (10%)
If you aren't sure, press 4 (5%) |
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Last Updated ( Wednesday, 16 July 2008 )
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Monday, 23 June 2008 |
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The Eric Roberson campaign commissioned a poll of CD32. As with earlier polls of CD7 and CD10, the population sampled was prior voters, and results were weighted to match historical turnout. These polls are designed to be apples-to-apples comparisons with earlier elections, looking at how much the district has shifted rather than projecting new turnout patterns. As with the other Congressional polls, I first asked about McCain v Obama, then Cornyn v Noriega and then the Congressional matchup. While there was minor variation in the responses, margins were identical in all three races. I find a nine point lead for Pete Sessions and the other Republicans, down from a fifteen point margin in the 2006 election. Three percent said they would vote third party or not vote, in line with the 2.3% that a Libertarian candidate received in 2006. Only one percent said they were undecided in the Congressional race, while the Presidential and Senate races had about 4% undecided. Questions were posed in this format:
In the 32nd District Congressional race, the candidates are Republican Pete Sessions and Democrat Eric Roberson
If you would vote for Republican Pete Sessions, press 1
If you would vote for Democrat Eric Roberson, press 2
If you would vote for another candidate, or if you would not vote, press 3
If you are undecided, press 4 The order of candidate names and choices is randomized. As of last week, I have changed my format to add the Libertarian candidate's name, but this poll was conducted prior to that change. Additional questions requested by the Roberson campaign were asked after the three matchup questions so that there would be no bias. Sessions was viewed favorably by 37% and unfavorably by 39%, with the remainder neutral. Roberson's name recognition was low, even among those who supported him. Top issue was the Economy, followed by the War. Illegal Immigration, Change and Healthcare also received support at lower levels. Sessions 52%
Roberson 43%
Third party/no vote 3%
Undecided 1% Excluding third party/no vote
Sessions 54%
Roberson 45%
Undecided 1% 581 likely voters polled 6/4/2008, margin of error 4.1% Other recent Texas polls for comparison
CD10, June 2 - McCaul 52% - Doherty 46%
CD7, April 8 - Culberson 57% - Skelly 39% |
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Last Updated ( Tuesday, 24 June 2008 )
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Party ID and Libertarians |
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Thursday, 19 June 2008 |
Now that the Libertarians have chosen their candidates, I wanted to see if there would be any significant change to the presidential and Senate races in Texas. On a somewhat related topic, I thought I would also look at changing party ID. After asking about the two races, I asked about current party affiliation and then about affiliation in 2004. The questions were structured like the ones below. Note that on the election questions, the order of the three candidates is randomized.
In the Presidential election, the candidates are Republican John McCain, Democrat Barack Obama and Libertarian Bob Barr
If you would vote for Republican John McCain, press 1
If you would vote for Democrat Barack Obama, press 2
If you would vote for Libertarian Bob Barr, press 3
If you would vote for another candidate, or if you would not vote, press 4
If you are undecided, press 5
The Senate question is structured the same way. The party questions are as follows:
Regardless of how you will vote in these elections, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent or a member of another party?
If you are a Republican, press 1
if you are a Democrat press 2
If you are an Independent press 3
if you are a member of another party, press 4
If you're not sure, press 5
Thinking back to the last presidential election in 2004, which party did you consider yourself a member of at that time?
If you were a Republican, press 1
if you were a Democrat press 2
If you were an Independent press 3
if you were a member of another party, press 4
If you're not sure, press 5
Unfortunately, the response rate was lower than average and at the end of the night I only had 338 responses. The general results are clear enough that I won't make additional calls, but I will mostly talk of results in general terms rather than publishing precise percentages.
At this point, the Libertarian candidates are not going to be spoilers in either race. Each pulled a small percentage, similar to polling I did in 2006 races. Yvonne Schick got a few more votes than Bob Barr, pulling both McCain and Obama voters, but consider that information anecdotal rather than statistical due to the numbers. Libertarian votes mostly came from self-described Independents or 'members of another party.'
Even with the Libertarians factored into the mix, McCain and Cornyn hold comfortable leads. This poll does not address potential first time voters, as it is too soon to assess their numbers, but there would have to be a very large, one sided turnout of first time voters to put these races in play. There was a very large, one sided turnout of first time primary voters in March, but the vast majority had previously voted in general elections. Certainly, there are enough non-voters to swing the general election, but it remains to be seen whether they will make it to the polls.
On the party ID questions, there were very few respondents that flipped from R to D or D to R, but there was a big increase in Independents. Of the respondents that said they were Democrats in 2004, 9% said they were now Independents. Of the respondents that said they were Republicans in 2004, 11% said they were now Independents. Only one 2004 Independent responded that he was no longer Independent, but he joined 'another party' rather than the Democrats or Republicans. Surveys have shown a divergence in respondent's recollections of prior votes and actual results, so these results should be taken with a grain of salt, but there does seem to be dissatisfaction with both parties. Despite the movement, about half of the new Independents supported both candidates from their prior party, with most of the rest splitting their support.
338 prior voters polled 6/18/2008. Margin of error 5.3% |
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