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Compass Insight PDF Print E-mail
Written by Administrator   
Tuesday, 07 April 2009 01:07
The economic polling that has been the subject of recent articles is being spun off to Compass Insight. The weekly economic survey has been incorporated into the Texas Economic Condition Index (TECI), which we will report monthly. We will provide regional and demographic analysis of the surveys, as well as general economic commentary like real estate near Leander's data.
Last Updated on Tuesday, 07 April 2009 01:32
Texas Unemployment PDF Print E-mail
Written by Administrator   
Tuesday, 10 February 2009 23:55

I had posted this elsewhere, so I thought I ought to put it here as well.  This is a time series of the responses relating to unemployment in Texas. In this chart, the red line is the percentage of people who are expecting unemployment to increase in the next three months, while the blue line is the percentage of people who have someone in their household worried about losing their job in the next six months. The dip during the summer reflects the relief that came with lower gas prices. That was followed by unemployment concern in the previously booming oil industry.  Graph after break...

Last Updated on Tuesday, 07 April 2009 01:35
Economic Update With Presidential Comparison PDF Print E-mail
Written by Administrator   
Tuesday, 07 October 2008 07:59

Haven't published any political polls in awhile, and I haven't updated the economic poll survey numbers though I have run a sample every week since the end of June. To summarize those results, pessimism has been rising with the Wall Street drama, but Texans have been more optimistic than when they were facing $4 gas. Polling last night (Oct 6), following a large drop in the market despite the bailout/rescue package, indicates that Texans have finally matched those previous levels of pessimism. Throughout the period, oil producing areas have been happier than the rest of the state, while DFW and South Texas have been relatively gloomy.

For the 10/6 poll, I added a question on the presidential race. This was the last question, so it should not influence the prior responses. I surveyed a double sample to get greater detail for this question, though results will be weighted at normal levels in the rolling average. Weighting was done to match the general population, not typical turnout or even registered voters, so this is in no way a prediction of the election, just an extra layer from the economic perspective. When reweighted to the general population levels, McCain leads Obama 46% to 42%. Historical turnout patterns would suggest a wider margin.

Last Updated on Monday, 02 February 2009 18:11
Changes PDF Print E-mail
Written by Administrator   
Saturday, 06 December 2008 04:47

As the 2008 campaign season grows smaller in the rear-view mirror and my logs show more attention from crackers and script kiddies than politicos, I figured it was about time to upgrade the site to a more secure version. It's a little blue at the moment, maybe it will grow on me. - Edit - Now moved to a new server and still putting the pieces back together.

In general, the Texas political environment was at its most competitive in the weeks following the primary. Polling all over the state showed increased Democratic strength, but voters settled back into their old habits as time wore on. Larger cities held the strength better than other areas, though pockets of voters around the state were responsive to localized retail campaigns. Democratic gains in the Texas Lege were offset by the rare Republican Congressional pickup in CD 22.

With election hoopla taking a breather, and financial woes taking center stage, I am going to be focused more on economic polling. The Texas numbers have taken a dive over the last month as the joy of lower gas prices to Joe Commuter has been overtaken by the anguish of Joe Oilpatch fetching $100 less per barrel than a few months ago.

Last Updated on Monday, 02 February 2009 19:02
Economic Sentiment PDF Print E-mail
Written by Administrator   
Wednesday, 16 July 2008 14:10

As some of you know, I do financial and economic analysis/consulting. Recently, I was talking to an Economist about the intersection of economics and politics, and we decided to start tracking a few measures of economic sentiment in Texas. We will be polling adults in Texas and periodically publishing results on a trailing month basis. The plan is to poll 250 adults each week, so the trailing month will have 1000 responses, adequate for regional breakdowns. Methodology will be the same as used in my political polls, but the sample will be residential, without regard to voter registration or history. Results will be weighted by age, gender and ethnicity to match the estimates of the Texas State Demographer.

If all goes well, this will spin off into an economic research entity which will do topical economic surveys as well as other forms of economic research and analysis.

Last Updated on Monday, 02 February 2009 18:09
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